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Today I would like to talk again about the wagering aspect of the game we play. I've received a bit of feedback encouraging more on this topic.

To begin with, I'll once again review the races I made picks for last weekend. On Saturday I posted picks for 4 races and here is how I played them.

Race 1

I had as my order of preference 6-7-5 with a periphery play (which is one that I originally think has a chance at the money but not the win. In the event of a late scratch or scratches, however, that play if the odds warrant it will be moved up to the main body of picks) #3, which was scratched.

This was a situation in which I preferred 2 of the 3 over the other. I thought #6 Spicey Tune had a good shot as a Profile/Wide Out play and I also liked the Double Play horse (best Beyer and final fraction - 3 of which combined for Sunday's 3rd-4th-5th pick 3 for $135.50 - this is the best percentage play as described in my book) #7 Juke Joint Jenny.

One of my options was to play either or both to win and I did opt for a win bet on the longer of the two, Spicey Tune who was 5-1. She, however got killed by the main track speed bias as Juke Joint Jenny prevailed by a neck at 2-1. My plays were: win #6; ex. 6-7/5-6-7; ex.bx. 6-7. Results: Lost. Recommended $20 play: $8 win #6 ($8); $2 ex.p/w 6-7/5-6-7 ($8); $2 ex.bx. 6-7 ($4); Result: -$20

Race 8

For race 8 I listed the following picks: 1-8-4 and 6-9 as periphery plays. #5 Currency Arbitrage surprised not only me, but quite a few others with a close-to-the-pace win paying $34.20. #'s 9, 1, & 4 followed him but I wound up throwing away my tickets.

In this match up I liked #1 Doctor Cat above the others and decided to single him in my wagers. He was a good price at 7-1 so I played him to win and keyed him top and bottom with the others in the exacta and keyed him in the first 2 slots in the trifecta. Had the winner not fired, I would have had a nice exacta and pretty good trifecta. But you know what they say about wouldas and couldas. My plays were: win #1; ex.p/w 1 / 4-6-8-9; ex.p/w 4-6-8-9 / 1; trifecta p/w 1 / 4-6-8-9 / 4-6-8-9 and 4-6-8-9 / 1 / 4-6-8-9. Results: Lost. Recommended $20 play: $12 win #1 ($12); $2 ex.p/w 1 / 4-6-8-9 ($8); Result: -$20, -$40 on the day.

Race 9

My picks were #'s 5, 2, and 1A. I lost my bets when the 3 won the race, followed by 1A and 2. This was a situation in which I took a stand against the favorite, #1 Storm Dream. She had a much worse last-out final fraction than some of the others. Here were those final fraction comparisons: #2 (24.0/24.0); #3 (24.1/24.1); #4 (25.4/26.3); #1 (26.1/26.1); #5 (23.3/23.1); #6 (23.4/24.0); #7 (dirt) and #1A (last on soft turf so I went to prior - 23.1/23.0).

Going by this comparison, one could throw out the 4-horse Babae, who finished 5th and the favorite 1-horse Storm Dream, who finished dead last. I did indeed toss them both, but got beaten by a horse who stacked up favorably in the final fraction category. Since one of the horses I liked was coupled with the favorite, I knew I wouldn't get the price deserved on 1A and he did go off with Storm Dream as the 6-5 chalk.

Because of this, I took a shot at keying my top 2 picks in exactas as such: 2-5/1-2-5 and left it at that. Results: Lost. Recommended $20 play: $12 win #5 ($12); $2 ex.p/w 2-5/1-2-5 ($8); Result: -$20; -$60 on the day.

Race 10

This is the race I spoke of in Sunday's newsletter and also cleared up confusion on in a Monday email. My picks were 2-1-10 with 3 as a periphery play. As we all know by now, I also stated that if the 1 was the part of the entry to be scratched, then due to the pace shape favoring early speed, the 9 and the 1A had to be considered.

With the late scratches of 1 and 10, my ultimate order of preference was 2-3-9-1A. And as I stated in Monday's email, there were various situational wagers one could make if they liked these picks. The situation I labeled this match up was liking 2 horses above the others, #'s 2 and 3. I knew the 9 and the 1A had the running style advantage but they were breaking from posts 8 and 10 and figured to battle enough to possibly allow the 2 or 3 to win it.

As it turned out, that's precisely the way it materialized with #9 Glitter Lad getting away from 1A Doswell inside the furlong marker and #3 Flo's Double just getting up at the wire, while #2 Full Bore could do no better than 5th. Due to the precarious nature of the track playing to speed, I did not make a win bet, but stuck to exactas and trifectas in this situation.

Here were my plays: ex.p/w 2-3 / 1-2-3-9; ex.p/w 1-9 / 2-3; because the odds on my horses were in order 5-1, 5-1, 7-1 and 6-1, a trifecta play was in order as such: box 1-2-3-9 and 2-3 / 1-2-3-9 / 1-2-3-9. I hit the exacta for $118 and the trifecta for $702 to finish the day well in the black. Recommended $20 play: $2 ex.p/w 2-3 / 1-2-3-9 ($12); $1 tri. p/w 2-3 / 1-2-3-9 / 1-2-3-9 ($12); totalled extra $4 dollars; Result: +$445; +$385 on the day.

Sunday's action at Belmont featured mostly chalk in my selections, although one of the 4 exactas listed did pay $50.00 and the pick 3 as stated paid $135.50 so it was still a profitable day. I'll go over those 5 races with a little less detail.

Race 3

My order of preference was 1A-8-4/6. I liked the 6 only if the track was going to favor speed again. Since race 1 featured far-off closers, I could assume the bias was gone and eliminated the 6 from consideration. Since the prices were a little short, I keyed on the Double Play horse in exactas. My wagers: 1 / 4-8; much smaller 4-8 / 1. I also played the following pick 3's: 1-8 / 1-3 / 4-9; 1 / 1-3 / 4-9. Result: Won. Recommended $20 play: $10 ex.p/w 1 / 4-8 ($20); Result: +$73.

Race 4

My order of picks was 3-1-10 / 5. This was a situation in which I liked 2 horses well above the rest and one better than the other. As the odds were again on the low side, I keyed on exactas as such: 1-3 / 1-3-5-10; 1-3 box; 3-1 straight. Results: Won. Recommended $20 play: $2 ex.p/w 1-3 / 1-3-5-10 ($12), $2 ex.bx. 1-3 ($4); $4 ex. 3-1; Result: +$48; +$121 on the day.

Race 5

For race 5 I had 9-4-7 / 2 listed. This was a situation in which I thought the 2 best last-out final fraction horses had the best shot at the win. When I saw that the odds on the Double Play horse, #4 Wild Flush were 5-1, I had to go to her over #9 Harbingerofspring at 7-2. I had picked the 9 over the 4 only because of the layoff of the latter, but 5-1 was too good of a price to overlook on a standout final fraction play.

My plays were: Win on #4; ex.p/w 4-9 / 2-4-7-9, ex.p/w 4 / 2-7-9; tri.p/w 4-9 / 2-4-7-9 / 2-4-7-9. I hit the $135.50 pick 3 and the $50 ex. while missing on the trifecta play. Results: Won. Recommended $20 play: $8 win 4 ($8); $2 ex.p/w 4-9 / 2-4-7-9 ($12); Result: +$82; +$203 on the day.

Race 7

My selections were 5-1-7. I liked the 5 above the others and played him to win and keyed him top and bottom in the exactas. He was a great disappointment and finished 3d, thereby costing me all wagers. My plays: Win on #5; ex.p/w 5 / 1-7; ex.bx. 5-7. Result: Lost. Recommended $20 play: $8 win #5 ($8); $6 ex.bx. 5-7 ($12); Result: -$20; +$183 on the day.

Race 8

My selections for race 8 were 2-1A-8-10. It was another situation in which I liked my top 2 over the others and they wound up with odds of 2-1 and 8-5, not the best of circumstances. I toyed with various wagers, including keying on the longshot #10 who was 13-1, but he had just broken his maiden and I kept going back to the fact that the race really looked like it belonged to either one or both of the two favorites.

I finally decided to either bang the exacta one way and reverse it for much less or skip the race. I chose the later and went home with the day's profits. My top 2 choices did run 1-2 for an exacta of $12.20 so I would have made a profit with the box but when there are doubts about whether the play is right or not, it's best to pass. Recommended $20 play: skip the race; Results for the day: + $183; for the weekend +$568.

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Today's review race is the 4th at Belmont on Sunday 10/1/00. You can view and/or print the Daily Racing Form past performances for this race by logging onto my website Here.

This was a 9F race on the inner turf course for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward foaled in New York State which had never won a race other than maiden, claiming or starter - NW1X. As per usual, I'll list the entries followed by the running style I've labeled each and then their last-out Beyer speed figure, last-out final fraction (raw/actual) and lastly any "moves-within-a-race."

  1. Wootie                             S     76     24.4 / 24.1     SRE
  2. Bee Bo's   Gal                  S     61     24.2 / 25.1
  3. Waltzing Camel                S     78     24.1 / 23.4
  4. Frisco Folly                    EP     66     25.0 / 26.1
  5. Opening Address              S     64     24.1 / 24.4
  6. Caro Wee Dancer            P     62     25.0 / 25.4
  7. Run Alexis Run                 P     67     24.4 / 25.1
  8. Stone Ends                       S     63     24.4 / 25.1
  9. Tis                                  EP     62     24.4 / 25.4    WIR
10. Greedy Girl                       P     61     25.0 / 25.1

Here was a case in which the public was going to see things pretty much the same way I did, but for different reasons. As can be seen by the chart, the 2 standout Beyer speed figure horses were also the two outstanding final fraction horses. When that occurs, prices are deflated. But there are enough occasions when the best final fraction plays do not possess the best last out Beyers.

Here were my thoughts about each entry.

1. Wootie - was an SRE play with a 24.1 last-out final fraction and as such had to be one of my top 2 selections.

2. Bee Bo's Gal - other than a 3-length gain in the final 8th in her last, didn't show much recently, including an off-the-turfer 2-back. I omitted her from my selections.

3. Waltzing Camel - a Double Play horse and her prior featured another sub-24.0 final fraction; she deserved top pick status.

4. Frisco Folly - possessed some early lick but had not finished well as of late and her final fractions showed that.

5. Opening Address - had won at the distance and finished fairly well in her last after a wide trip. I placed her on my periphery play list.

6. Caro Wee Dancer - she ran a good 2nd in her prior, but her last was nothing to write home about when she showed good early presence but flattened out.

7. Run Alexis Run - another who didn't show much willingness lately, other than a good 2nd 2-back; similar to Caro Wee Dancer in that she didn't get the heart pumping.

8. Stone Ends - a lagger who doesn't close.

9. Tis - one of the few early speed types, she was a good-looking WIR horse as reminded to me by Fred G, who wrote me Sunday evening asking why I hadn't listed her in the top 3 and that he had cashed on the trifecta for $187.50 using her with the top 2 picks. All I can say is that I'm embarrassed that I missed this one. Those that have my book can see that this is a textbook example of a WIR play and she ran a big race to finish 3rd.

10. Greedy Girl - she finished okay in her last after a bumping incident and because of her prior good win, I listed her as my 3rd choice.

Part of the reason why I'm using this race as today's review is to illustrate how the principles in "Calibration Handicapping" are in- deed sound. As many of you know, among other factors, it stresses three areas of handicapping, pace shape, "moves" and internal fraction com- parison. The order of finish of this race en- compassed all 3 areas.

#3 Waltzing Camel had the obvious best last-out final fraction, #1 Wootie had the 2nd- best final fraction and made an SRE "move", and #9 Tis had a pace shape advantage with a last- out WIR "move." Unfortunately I somehow over- looked Tis, still a complete mystery to me to this day and it cost me and others a $187.50 payoff.

With or without Tis, this was a situation in which 2 of my contenders stood out in the final fraction category and #3 Waltzing Camel had the clear advantage over #1 Wootie. In this scenario, I will key on the top 2 and then my top pick in exactas and trifectas. Here were the results.

1st - 3. Waltzing Camel - $5.70
2nd - 1. Wootie - 3-1 ex. $17.00
3rd - 9. Tis - 3-1-9 tri. $187.50

Until next week, I wish you clear skies and fast tracks. Knock 'em dead!

Jim

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Anyone who is interested in getting a sample of the weekday picks can still get them at no cost until the end of October by sending an email here.

This Holiday-shortened week began well as from the 3 races I put up on Thursday, my top pick in race 7 clicked at $11.80 and the other 2 picks ran 2nd and 3rd to bring in the exacta of $30.20 and the trifecta of $91.00. Keying on Peeping Tom in the 7th and using the listed selections in races 8 and 9 produced a pick 3 payoff of $506.00.

On Friday I managed to put up one exacta out of 3 races in spite of a main track speed bias.In race 5 My top pick Flo's Double ran 2nd to my 3rd pick Concorde Light, who rode the bias to an easy win, with the exacta paying $59.00. This was a situation which would have been tabbed "3 con- tenders with one strong choice", that being Flo's Double and the advised wagering play would have called for a win bet on him and the exacta plays using him top and bottom with the other 2 picks.

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Now I'll review race 2 from Sunday 10/8/00. You can view and/or print the Daily Racing Form past performances for this race by logging onto my website Here.

This was a 7 furlong sprint for 3-year-old fillies going for claiming tags of $35K down to $30K. As it happens, this race is an advertisement for the 3-step handicapping process I detail in my book, "Calibration Handicapping." As most of you know at this point, I focus on 3 primary areas of handicapping. Running style/pace shape match up and advantage, "moves-within-a- race", and internal fractions comparison/advan- tage. As you will see, the value-laden results of this race were directly pointed to by this 3- faceted process.

At the top of my Daily Racing Form page for this race, I have written the following, all of which is underlined in red: 1 EP - (10) - Ad Early. What this means is that in this field of 10, there was only 1 true early speed horse. While this does not mean that she is a sure winner, it does mean that she possesses a definite pace advantage over her competition.

The first prudent step to take is to decide if the lone early horse, #11 Blue Holiday has a decent shot to take her field all the way on top. If we examine her past performances, we can see that she has been running at much higher levels than she was in this match up. In her last, she flashed good speed for a half before faltering and as a bonus, she ran that as a Wide Out play.

Looking back to her prior couple of races at Belmont on June 15th and July 9th, we see a wire-to-wire win at the statebred NW1X level followed by a decent up close showing at the open NW2X level. And after that she just missed against 50K claimers at Saratoga. Translation: she definitely has the capability to top this one all the way.

Now I'll list the entire field with the running styles I've labeled each, followed by each last-out Beyer speed figure, raw/actual final fraction, and any "moves-within-a-race."

  1. Baby Barbara               S     30
  2 Alerted By Gold            S     74     25.4 / 24.4
  3. Lorraine's Memory       P     63     25.0 / 25.1
  5. Totally Private              P     56     25.1 / 26.3    W.O.
  6. Romantic Novel           P     62     25.0 / 25.2    Profile
  7. K.C.'s Gift                   S     30
  8. Santo Mio                    S     74     25.0 / 24.4
10. Frenetic                        S     44
11. Blue Holiday              EP     20     24.3 / -        W.O.
12. Fast Storm                   P     72     25.4 / 25.4

Here is the "Calibration Handicapping" approach to unearthing contenders from this field.

1. Baby Barbara-she was just plain dull and an immediate throwout.

2. Alerted By Gold-along with #8 Santo Mio, she was a Double Play, having the best last-out Beyer speed figure and final fraction. This is usually a high percentage play to hit the board. Both of these horses were S runners, which meant they were at a disadvantage in this pace shape.

I went with Alerted By Gold as my 3rd choice and eliminated Santo Mio, in spite of the latter plunging back into the claiming ranks. I separated them by noting that Alerted By Gold had won her last and that she had won at Belmont and at the 7F distance. As things turned out, I was quite fortunate that Alerted By Gold did get the show spot by lunging at the wire to nip Santo Mio by a head.

3. Lorraine's Memory - I made her a periphery play for the exotics due to her early presence capablilities as well as finishing evenly in her last after a rough trip. And her last-out final fraction matched up well.

5. Totally Private - an interesting Wide Out play with a 1 for 26 record. Looking at the odds she went off at in her last and her record, I could see that she would be a price once again. The key to her was the 3-length gain on the turn she made while 5-wide. I made her a strong 2nd choice. Here were my comments in the newsletter: "is a Wide Out play who looks ready to fire her best shot, having rallied 5-wide on the turn in her last before fading back; threat."

6. Romantic Novel - with blinkers added, she figured to show some speed, but also figured to get burned up if she went with the 11-horse so I tossed her.

7. KC.'s Gift - an S runner with no recent evidence of a finishing kick. Out.

8. Santo Mio - as it turns out, I spent about 45 minutes at least on this one race. I originally had Santo Mio as a periphery play since she was a Double Play, but wound up not using her, which was nearly a mistake. I coudn't knock anyone who did since she was taking a drop along with her last-out stats. I eventually tossed her due to being an S runner toward the outside.

10. Frenetic - stale and had not shown much prior to her lengthy layoff.

11. Blue Holiday - not only was she the strong speed on paper in a pace shape strongly favoring same, but she ran her last as a Wide Out and as such had to be my top choice. Here were my comments in Sunday's newsletter: "Wide Out play #11 Blue Holiday drops in company and may be able to secure a clear early lead in a pace shape that gives a significant advantage to early speed types; will likely gun and run from her outside post."

12. Fast Storm - in this match up, it looked like her main chance would be to go out hard from her 10 post position and that wouldn't be an easy chore with the presence of Blue Holiday to her inside. She hadn't shown any recent closing capability so I eliminated her from the short contender list.

Here were my listed selections, with offi- cial morning line, followed by my personal value line and finally the actual post time odds.

11. Blue Holiday   (8-1)   (3-1)   6-1
5. Totally Private   (20-1)   (8-1)   33-1
2. Alerted By Gold   (4-1)   (3-1)   7-2

Periphery Plays

3. Lorraine's Memory   (4-1)   (3-1)    5-2

As can be seen, the only pick that was not an overlay (meaning odds of more than my fair odds line) was my periphery play #3. With 20 minutes until post time for this race, it was quite evident that there was extreme value in the exotic plays using my 3 overlay picks.

Using what I call the "situational wagering" approach, here is how I labeled this match up:

"3-contender +1 (periphery play) with a preference for my top 2 picks and a preference for my top pick between those 2."

There are any number of situations we will come across and it's advisable to have a preset wagering plan for each and every one we encounter so we will automatically know how to construct the right wagers during crunch time.

As I said earlier, in my selections newsletters beginning with November 1st, I will label each race like this and suggest the proper wagering plan to go with each situation.

In this situation, a win bet is appropriate on either or both of the top picks, if the odds warrant betting on both. Depending upon one's total wager amount for the race, I would have recommended wagering on both #11 and #5, at about a 4-1 ratio. In other words, if one had $20 to wager on this race, I would have advised $8 to win on #11 and $2 to win on #5, reserving the balance of $10 for exotic plays

Due to the high odds of my top two picks, especially #5, exacta and trifecta plays would have been suggested. Again, depending upon the wager amount, the following plays would be have been suggested in addition to the win bet(s), assuming a $20 total wager amount.

Exactas:
$1   5-11 / 2-3-5-11  =   $6;   $2   11 / 2-5   = $4. The return for this $20 in wagers would have been $944.40.

My full "situational wagering" approach would have been: win: 80% #11, 20% #5; exactas: box 2-5-11, p/w 5-11 / 2-3-5-11, 11 / 2-3-5, 11-5; trifectas: box 2-5-11, 5-11 / 2-3-5-11 / 2-3-5-11, 11 / 2-3-5 / 2-3-5. Any or all of these plays are the recommended approach to this unique situa- tion and one would make the plays that are most suited to their own bankroll and per race wager amount.

The winner of this race fit the pace shape advantage as shown by labeling running styles, and she also was a "move" horse being a Wide Out play. The place horse was also a "move" horse, a Wide Out play. The show horse was the best last-out final fraction play. Here was the order of finish.

1st - 11 Blue Holiday - $15.60
2nd - 5 Totally Private - 11-5 ex. $588
3rd - 2 Alerted By Gold - 11-5-2 tri. $2,600

Until next week, I wish you clear skies and fast tracks. Knock 'em dead!

Jim

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